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Optimists Aren't Just Naive

How many times have we seen this movie? The markets vacillating around basically nothing – tweets, politically-crafted comments from various leaders supposedly in the know, ebbs, and flows in optimism around a potential trade deal with China. 

We're certainly a bit tired of the trade brinkmanship – so is Wall street and so is corporate America, as evidenced by stalled capital spending and muted business confidence. The question is: beyond this week, how important is it to get some resolution on the trade front? Fundamentals like earnings and sales growth don't matter much at all on a day-to-day basis; sometimes, it's just the big picture headlines, but what about over more extended periods of time?

There are multiple influences on stocks, some more powerful than others. From a psychological standpoint, doesn't it seem like pessimists or critics are considered more intelligent, more astute? If you're picking holes in something, posing a potentially bad outcome, you're considered a deep thinker, someone who has weighed all the pros and cons and found the glitch.

Meanwhile, if you're an optimist, you're considered superficial, naive, maybe even clownish. To say the market is going up probably gets more ridicule than attention. So, with all this in mind, let's talk about what's going right and why the market could easily have another good year.


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